Honey friend

I retrieve that 3 weeks into this special armed services operation we tin can take a few moments to intermission and call back most where we are and where we become from hither.

My outset observation is this: there are, roughly, 2 chief groups of people out there, those who "get it" and those who don't.  In practical terms, this is what this means for me: when I write I am either "preaching to the choir" or I am trying to reach folks who are "unreachable" (beingness polite here).

For the past three weeks, I have tried to debunk the US PSYOP narrative, alongside folks similar Andrei Martyanov at Reminiscences of the Future and Bernhard at Moon of Alabama.  My health does not let me to sustain such a crazy tempo and I need to enter something of a "temporary residue mode" if I want to avert being forced into rest by my body.

Yet I all the same get a daily deluge of questions from those who did non "get information technology" and, frankly, I am exhausted trying to deflate the same stuff over and over and over once more.

So, one last time:

In purely military terms, the picture show we see now is simple: the Ukie military every bit a strategic instrument basically died in the first 24 hours.  So the Russians used a modest force to bypass and block main cities.  With some very notable exceptions (Mariupol) they did not try to enter them.  Why?  For iii crucial reasons:

  1. they did not have the manpower needed (in Mariupol the strength correlation is almost ane:1 when it should really exist three-5:1 in favor of the assaulter)
  2. they wanted to kill as few Ukrainians equally possible and
  3. they did not desire to flatten cities only to have to pay for their reconstruction.

So where are the rest of the Russian forces and what are they doing?

They are mostly in their permanent deployment bases and they are set for a state of war against the US+NATO.

And if yous are the type of believes that "the Russians are running out of manpower" inquire yourself why the Black Bounding main Armada did non use its elite Naval Infantry, amphibious landing capability or its firepower (I remind y'all that all the huge damage done to the NATO base of operations in western Ukraine was just a single salvo from 1 single minor vessel (what the Russian call a "pocket-sized missile ship"), probably with i (land or air based) Iskander to add together some specific "punch" where needed.  If the Russian were running out of manpower, would she not use the Black Body of water Fleet to the max?  Instead, she is keeping it near Odessa, gear up to strike if/when needed, not merely at the Ukraine, but at NATO also (ditto for the group of Russian ships in the eastern Mediterranean).

This is why Putin refers to this operation equally a "special military operation" and non as a "war" or a "combined arms functioning".

Again, you lot either "get it" or you don't.  Information technology's that elementary, really.

Then here is roughly were we are today (yesterday'south Readovka map):

And so we are probable to cease up with something looking similar this:

And I don't see the point of reporting how nosotros will go from the height map to the projection above blow by blow, town by town.

The real question that comes to my mind looking at the projection above is non "how do we get there?" but "where do we go from there one time nosotros brand it?".  Right now this conclusion time is still probably a couple of weeks into the future.

Whatever may be the instance, I accept decided to terminate posting updates every day (sometimes several times a day) and, instead, alternate analyses days and open thread days .

So from now on, expect analyses just every 2nd day (unless large events happen).

Next, I don't see any other way to stop the Us+U.k.+PL to intervene other than by ways of a Iskander/Kalibr strike not "just" upon whatever target in the Ukraine, just also strikes on whatever NATO facility is central to the current state of war preparations by NATO, including locations in Poland , Romania or anywhere else in Europe.

I hope that I am wrong and that the Usa+UK+PL are not as terminally blinded by their hatred of Russia as to gamble an actual total scale war in Europe.

But I take to acknowledge that this promise is small and getting smaller past the day.

It is therefore quite possible, maybe even likely, that in the not too afar future we will come across US and Russian military personnel coming together in gainsay.  If that happens, not simply will the risks of a fullscale nuclear war go sharply up, just information technology would place me personally in an impossible state of affairs: I would be a invitee of the The states ("Green Card" – I merely have a Swiss Passport) while my country of ethnic origin would be at war with the USA.

I have therefore taken the post-obit decision: if at that place is a state of war in Europe, I will continue to cover information technology until 1) Russian and Us soldiers meet in battle and/or 2) a nuclear strike happens anywhere.  If nosotros reach either of these points, then this will not merely testify that the Saker weblog failed in its main mission (avoid war) but it volition as well place me personally in an impossible situation.

If either of the two events happen, I will then "freeze" the blog until the war stops.

I don't like to accept to take the 2 decisions to a higher place, in fact I very much regret them both, only things are quickly getting out of hand and I need to set, both the blog and my personal life.

Question: remember the Israeli war against Hezbollah in 2006?

Hezbollah won this war by a humongous margin, and the Usa+Israel had to give up to Hezbollah terms.  Not only that, merely this state of war made Hezbollah much, much stronger than it was before.  Yet information technology began past a miscalculation which Hassan Nasrallah himself admitted: Hezbollah never expected to Israelis to go and so far overboard and basically hammer Lebanon with everything they had for over a month.

I come across a parallel here.

No, I practice not think that the Russian war machine operation has run into whatsoever major bug, by and large what happened in these three weeks must be pretty much what the Russian expected.

In economic terms, there is this big debate now about the Russian gold and foreign currency reserves which I am not capable of commenting upon since I am not an economist.  I volition let much smarter people than I deal with that.

I also think that the Russians knew in advance what kind of sanctions the West would introduce sooner or later, just I call up that the Kremlin was taken past surprise at the speed and scope of the sanctions.  How much of a problem is that?  Well, I generally favor western sanctions against Russia because they force Russia to built a sovereign economy and considering they de-couple Russia from the institutions controlled past the Empire of Lies.

Here, again, time volition tell and much smarter people then I can offer their insights into this.

However, I think that well-nigh people in Russian federation are stunned by what is a full-scale "hate war" on Russia which we tin can call the "Abolish Russian federation war".  In essence, the West did throw everything it had at Russia brusk of a overt military aggression and knowing the geniuses in power in the US+UK+PL I would not even put information technology past them to attempt to fight Russia directly.

And so what began as a special military operation to denazify and disarm Banderastan in a preemptive war turned into a global "Abolish Russia" earth war.

How could I blame folks in Russia for not being able to imagine the utter suicidal depravity of the western ruling classes when I, who was born in the heart of Europe and lived all my life in the Due west could not imagine these ruling classes to be then absolutely out of touch with reality?

Once more, to be clear, Russians were not "naive" to "trust" the West almost anything, but they indeed assumed that the ruling class of the USA would non make up one's mind to blow upwards the planet economically and fifty-fifty possibly militarily considering it would injure the interests of the US ruling class.  And so if anybody is "dumbshit stupid" it is inappreciably the Russians, but rather the folks who dominion over the USA (and, therefore, over the EU too).

There is besides this Russian expression: "you should count your chicks in the Autumn".  Let'south see by year'south terminate who was really dumbshit stupid and who will have prevailed.

At present I think that it is time for all of united states of america, myself included, to allow become of the thought "no, they tin can't possibly by THAT delusional" and assume that yes, they are really THAT delusional.

I also come across another parallel: remember how the USA forced Nihon into a war and and then wrapped itself in the drape of an innocent victim and declared "this day shall alive in infamy"?

That is exactly what the USA but pulled off in Europe. And the consequences might be just as immense.

Only there is a big difference here: Japan could not meaningfully strike at the continental The states.  Russia very much can, with both nuclear and conventional weapons.

Here I will merely repeat the quote past Putin which I mentioned the day before the Russian special military operation: " if a fight is inevitable you should strike commencement ".  In plain English this means that if the Russian come to the conclusion that the The states is engaged in a "Desert Shield" blazon of operation (claim to exist only defensive while preparing for months for a fullscale ground invasion) so you tin can be certain that Russian federation will strike EU airports, seaports or any other facility used to prepare an attack on Russian federation.

In fact, if the United states of america/NATO do decide to attack Russia, this will exist the last, nuclear, cease for the western civilization as such.  After 1000 years of genocidal imperialism, one could be forgiven for thinking that this could be a fitting, just, cease" in the "craven coming habitation to roost" kind of karmic justice.

Now it is in the hands of the US ruling elites.

Frankly, in that location is very little Andrei, Bernhard of myself can do about that.  I sure have said all I have to say on this topic and, once again, some see information technology, others don't – and there is cypher more I can do to touch on this ratio.

The future of our planet now depends on whether the traditional western hatred for all things Russian is bigger or smaller than the self-preservation instincts of US ruling class (the Eurolemmings are hopeless).

Only time will tell.  All we tin can do now is pray and place our trust and lives into God's hands.

Okay, these are the things I wanted to communicate to you all, my friends and readers.  I all the same hope for the all-time, but I have to fix for the worst, and I want to be fully candid with all of yous.

Kind regards

Andrei

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